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Election Prediction

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This is my take on what will unfold tomorrow.

Labour 55 seats

National 49 seats

Act 16 seats

We will have a centre right govt that will be forced to implement some very sensible policy to get the country back into production and pay off the massive debt Labour have incurred.

38 COMMENTS

  1. Essentially you are saying Ed, the polls are all wrong. I genuinely hope you are right. As I posted late last night the polls have not really changed, so the debates and all the electioneering have not counted at all, for any party. This does not make sense to me.

    Answering a question on a post on KB , Mr Farrar reckons the election is basically a referendum on the Covid response and nothing else counts ( the poor CoL performance pre-covid has faded away). He is probably not far from the truth, even though the covid response has been all propaganda.

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  2. Has Judith been reading YSB?

    NZ Election 2020: Judith Collins predicts Jacinda Ardern will ‘be off to the UN’ if Labour loses election
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-judith-collins-predicts-jacinda-ardern-will-be-off-to-the-un-if-labour-loses-election.html

    The two leaders were asked during the debate what they would do if the election doesn’t go in their favour, and while Collins hopes to stay on as Opposition leader, Ardern suggested she would want to continue to influence politics.

    “I want politics to change and whether or not I’m in it and trying to change it or whether or not I’m outside of it I still want to play a role in that,” she said.

    “I want our young people to look at this place and say you can do positive things – it doesn’t have to be about mud-slinging – and I want our nation to not be completely polarised… Relative to other countries we do a pretty good job on that.”

    Collins said she wasn’t surprised Ardern would step down if she loses on Saturday.

    “No not really, because she’s been the Prime Minister for three years, so I also think that she’s also mentioned that she thinks something post-politics would be something like government but not necessarily government.”

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  3. My prediction:-
    Editor has been on the turps since 11am today
    This is not a celebration
    It could be practice for life as an alkie to drink away his assets to below $1 million per household member

    More grief to come Monday morning
    tax
    tax
    tax

    Yeah, nah.
    Nice call Ed but cant see ACT bringing in 16 seats
    9; maybe 10.

    Greens will be there even with the traditional election day drop beneath poll levels .
    Possibly less on specials as they traditionally pick up a seat on Specials because so many of their supporters have rowed over to other countries to save the rainforest and other green slime BS.
    Its not a holiday you know, saving the planet.
    It is fake gnews that the planet has looked after itself and self cleansed and healed for 4.5 BILLion years
    It needs nauseating wee cucks and bull dykes to do that.

    I call 36-37% for Notional .

    Just off to get some single malt bottles before tax increases !
    Bye.

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      • T’would be nice if you are correct.
        —————
        Led Zeppelin
        Night Flight

        “I received a message from my brother ‘cross the water
        He sat laughin’ as he wrote, “The end’s in sight”
        So I said goodbye to all my friends
        and packed my hopes inside a matchbox”

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      • I an optimistic bugger and I thought 12 in the last day or so. Can’t see why the nats won’t win enough seats to keep them there.
        Labour is stuffed, Jacinda wants to leave but didn’t have the guts to tell her useless mates that she was going and to suck it up and find a new leader.
        doesn’t matter how amny votes the Nats get as along as they win more seats than Labour. The ACT votes will make up the numbers and will get rid of the low hanging turkeys on the Nats list.

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    • Why?

      Over 50% have voted
      It is not ‘prediction’ any more

      Polls have been way off in recent years.
      they are now tools to ‘guide’ the weak and indecisive to be part of the ‘big picture’ and not an outlier.
      Pioneers get arrows in their back.

      Will that be the ghastly wee tova no’Brain spouting out the numbers and wetting her pants about her recent flatmate Ardoom?

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  4. I am intrigued by Jacinda’s “no” when asked if she would stay on if she lost. Not the response, but the tone and inflection. Mike Alluded to it this morning. I wonder if the internal polling of both Labour and National are reasons for 1) Jacindas decisive short retort, and b) Judith’s upbeat demeanor. I could of course be completey misreading this, but I don’t put much value in the polls…. Of course I will be depressed as hell if things dont pan out reasonbly well…..

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  5. Labour will win.
    But it will be a damn sight closer than those ‘Polls’ are suggesting.
    Remember last year those same ‘Polls’ had Jacindamania ten points clear of the Nats- On Election night she got thumped!
    As our old mate Winston always says-
    “There’s only one poll that counts…”

    11

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    • Depends how socially media dependent the current voter is. I don’t have facebook or twitter etc but think that those sites only reinforce the vocal minority memes and stuff. BLM and looting across the world could scare the average “Karen” unless too stupid to see the outcomes. But not having those sites I hear more and see more, and actually talk with people.
      Edit. But it’s hard to find people who want to admit honestly what they think sometimes, people seem to be hedging their bets

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  6. Here is a guy posting on BDF who does his own analysis seat by seat

    “Ok folks. I have finished my analysis of election results from the 2017 election (including booth analysis) in addition to looking at boundary changes and how that affects they political party strength as well as new electorates. I have not taken into account any polls from any polling outfit whatsoever – they mean nothing because of how erratic they can be. So this is my result. I don’t think NZF will return, neither the Greens and there are numerous reasons why but the reliance on overseas special votes in my view as where Green’s gain, is gone. Now, my results are from my analysis and from no-one else and of course BFD is great as a forum for discussion it may generate that (or not!). This election has been far more interesting to analyse by comparison with all the elections in the past, so, hold onto your hats because it will be very close I think. If you feel like doing your own calculations go to https://elections.nz/stats-… and have a go! ”

    He has a chart which I cannot copy and paste but it says

    % of Vote MPs Electorate MPs List MPs
    ACT 9 13 1 12
    Labour 42 58 26 32
    National 35.1 49 45 4

    So it all hinges on the Greens missing out from what I can see.

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  7. We are doomed !
    Every dope smoking Smart Old Boy ,otherwise known as SOBs will be trotting along to a polling booth to get their fix and have their say.
    Demographics would say a boom for the Greens. Nandor will be creating his very own Morris dance.
    Maybe the prospect of euthanasia may reduce the trend for those over three score and ten.
    Buuuut.
    Goodbye election.

    4

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