Home NZ Politics It Ain't over till the voters vote

It Ain’t over till the voters vote

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The 2020 New Zealand Election is Not a Foregone Conclusion

 

The most recent TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll felt about right: Labour/Green on 54% and National/Act on 38% of decided voters. But I sense that Labour is losing momentum.

What needs to happen to make Judith Collins the Prime Minister in October? National/Act need just five percentage points more, and Green to fall below five percent. This combination of possibilities is not improbable.
Act is running hot with many voters just now, and seems to be winning over many undecided voters, just as the Bob Jones party did in 1984. While Act’s message of fiscal rectitude – a message laced with comedy – is quite cynical, it is effective with an electorate trained by almost all of our political messengers to be very afraid of public debt.
National has managed this fiscal policy issue much better than Labour, by promising – through ‘temporary’ tax cuts – both the need for immediate fiscal stimulus and the promise of lower future public debt. Further, Labour has boxed itself into a corner with its doubled ‘winter energy benefit’ soon coming to an end. Many poor Auckland families will fall into immediate poverty as a result, because they have been using this to pay the rent.
Disenchantment arising from the insensitivity of withdrawing benefits at this time may see many potential Labour voters not bothering to vote at all.
Labour stands to being seen as, simultaneously, both stingy, which it is, and profligate, as Act paints it. Both perceptions could be costly to Labour.  The Green Party suffers likewise, and is looking less attractive to its past left-feminist supporters, thanks to the James Shaw ‘Green School’ gaff.
Not only has Labour mismanaged the messaging about fiscal stimulus and public debt, it has also mismanaged the messaging about our two-vote voting system. Labour has failed to train the media into properly distinguishing between the proportional party vote and the plurality (ie ‘FPP’) electorate vote. Labour has shown no inclination to facilitate the election of a Green electorate MP, and that naïve pretence that the candidate vote is also a party vote could cost the present Government dearly.
To vote Labour in Auckland Central or Wellington Central or Tamaki-Makaurau (or anywhere else) is to vote for the Labour Party, not for the Labour electorate candidate. To vote for a Labour-led government, Labour supporters in those named electorates should vote for the Green Party candidate; in each case, to achieve their political objective, it is crucially important that those three Green candidates be in Parliament.
Even if Labour wins this time despite the Green Party failing, this would make a Jacinda Ardern led  government unnecessarily vulnerable in 2023.
I think that Labour/Green will prevail, nevertheless, despite both parties’ ‘own goals’. First, Labour’s billboards emphasising the electorate vote over the party vote may inadvertently help the Green Party get over five percent. Second, Labour’s biggest asset is the Judith Collins’ billboards showing Gerry Brownlee standing behind her. Gerry is truly yesterday’s man, is gaff-prone, and unpopular. The important question is whether Labour or Act becomes the main beneficiary of the Brownlee ‘turn-off’ effect.
(Judith Collins will be very happy if National gets 30% and Act gets 20%. Indeed, in that scenario, National may get some overhang MPs. And, with Paul Goldsmith not making it back to Parliament under that scenario, then David Seymour may become the next Minister of Finance. Help!)
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20 COMMENTS

  1. I like the last senario.
    Davis biggest problem will be finding 20 MP’s.
    The having those unknowns to w\\w the line.

    Good problem to have. I guess.

    The bonus would be no more selfies of Cindy.

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    • I know Willie Jackson is of very low intelligence, but surely he did not actually say that did he Viking? I do not watch the news on the liebour party Chanels nor the after the news liebour party propaganda programmes in fact it is very hard to watch NZtv at all, life is difficult enough with the tea towel wearing ptpm, we don’t need separatists like those people who have sucked the teat dry of white person kindness for years.

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  2. I may have to seek psychiatric help soon , it used to be the sight of the maggot Peters that would enrage me but nothing like the loathing and anger I feel when gazing at that pic of Ardern blatantly using that tea towel to build her international profile.
    How did we end up with such an empty vessel running our Country ? oh that’s right the maggot C–T Peters.
    It’s genuine hate I feel for those two BASTARDS ,FFS in that pic the emaciated fuck has even perfected the oppressed quiet Muslim Woman look on her face.

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    • I think she’s seriously running the risk of over-egging this hijab thing. Even daughter who is going through her “save the world” stage and thought Jacinda was amazeballs (sorry team, I tried), thinks this is pretty cynical.

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      • Saggy ,its not for the domestic market its for the international set that will never know what an untalented yapper she actually is .

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  3. The hoardings in Napier have Judith and Kate.
    Katie Nimon standing for National is a very attractive young lady who would beat the Pony for looks.
    People will vote for her because she looks ‘nice’.
    Have only seen Gerry in one.

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  4. From the Evening Report (where this post was taken from):

    Keith Rankin
    Keith Rankin is an economics and statistics lecturer, recently retired from Unitec, Auckland, New Zealand.

    Note: the complete lack of his political bias (Left-wing).

    Still, an interesting analysis but his bias still shines through.

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  5. I don’t know about an overhang but we could easily make a list of the useless who should never be allowed into parliament again after their lack-luster performance under the COL

    Top of the list is Kelvin Who?
    Phail Twyford, still promising miracles and failing every time
    David Clark who saw the writing on the wall
    JLR for being nuts
    Winston Raymond Peters for being himself and past his shelf life
    etc
    etc
    etc

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  6. Rankin is right about voting for the Labour electorate and Green party vote but Labour clearly think they can win on their own and do not really want the Greens to be along side them. That is why they are pushing Green issues like reaffirming Labour does not want mining on Conservation land ( Ardern reckons Peters stuffed it up last time)

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  7. I have only ever voted the once, in 93. It was my first time being eligible so was a novelty I guess.

    Since then, I’ve always held the belief that it doesn’t matter a shit about voting, as you always just end up with the government. All governments being essentially the same. Implementing a slow creep towards the NWO.
    Mrs Floyd has never voted, not the once. For much the same reason, and a distinct disinterest.

    But. This time there is something extremely important on the line, and we need to stand up and be counted with our likeminded NZers.
    Last night we both enrolled to vote so that we can add to the hope of ridding us of this scourge of a government. The lesser of two evils so be it.

    Mrs Floyd is a rural girl, so it’s two ticks blue from her. I will be yellow and blue.

    Every vote is needed more than ever before, and I hope there are many more like us that make the same decision to get involved.

    Say no to the ho.
    Ditch the bitch.

    Together hopefully we can Sheath the Teeth!

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  8. This shows the complexity of MMP that people were never aware of.
    It was a cynical move by the electoral commission to select MMP over other options.

    Their massive lie was that STV was ‘too difficult’ stands out like dogs balls as a lie.

    It is used in various NZ Council elections and in most State elections in AU. STV means your vote always counts and keeps counting until a decision is made.
    The Australian senate seems to change the voting method every few decades and has used forms of STV.

    Places that use STV
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote

    A hell of a lot more than those that use MMP.
    Germany, NZ, Lesotho, Bolivia and Ethiopia as outliers
    Albania and Romania tried it after NZ started the experiment and dropped it quickly.

    MMP- complete bollocks

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    • Agree howitis that MMP is bollocks but I think SMP is far superior to STV. I think STV is too complicated –I’m in Wellington where it is used for Council elections and the left are very good at “using” it.
      SMP is a good balance between FPP and a proportional voting system. The key difference to MMP is the electorate seats are taken out of the “count” —the party vote only applies to list seats. So you will never have a situation like last time where a minor party determined who was the Government.

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  9. ACT seem to be doing very well in the polls, deservedly in my opinion. But how do we convince the people who are about to waste their party votes on no hope parties like New Conservatives, Advance NZ, the Outdoors party and Ban 1080 etc. that we have a real chance to make a difference by party voting ACT?

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  10. I have huge difficulty accepting that half our parliament is made up of members not answerable to any electorate. If you like most on a list you’ve got to take the rotten ones as well and the only way to get rid of those particular ones is to vote the lot out next time. I especially detest the idea of list MPs as government ministers.

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  11. Any system that means half the politicians do not face the scrutiny of the ballot is a recipe for professional politicians . Their only motivation is to remain employed in their”profession “.They really don’t care whether or not they are in government, just their continued employment.
    The trouble with this is it means voters are irrelevant
    Countries with MMP inevitably end up with very poor voter turnouts, and effectually a single party government.
    MMP is destroying democracy in NZ

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