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National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

This year’s election is shaping up to be all about mates – who has friends and who doesn’t.

Our latest Newshub-Reid Research poll sets the scene this election year – and what a scene it is. National and Labour have never been this close in our poll’s history.

And because the two major parties are neck-and-neck, they are going to need all the help they can get.

This is a taser poll – sending a jolt to all the parties. It’s a wake-up call that this election couldn’t be closer – a thriller decision 2020.

National slipped slightly to 43.3 percent – down .6 percent. It’s still the country’s biggest party but only just.

That’s because Labour’s nipping at its heels on 42.5 percent – up 0.9 percent.

National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

But the difference between winners and losers can be good mates and Labour has them.

The Greens get 5.6 percent – down 0.7 percent. They’re getting closer to the danger zone, that 5 percent threshold parties need to get into Parliament.

The Nats have a much smaller crew to depend on but ACT keeps gaining popularity. They’re on 1.8 percent, up .4 percent.

National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

And those are the only parties that make it into Parliament on this poll – New Zealand First is on 3.6 percent, down .4 percent.

National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

Lots of natter about the Māori Party recently has seen a tinsy lift but unless it wins a seat it’s still toast.

The Opportunities Party and the Conservatives also fall off the radar.

National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

Here’s how your Parliament would look based on this poll:

  • National has 56 seats
  • Labour’s just behind on 55
  • Assuming David Seymour wins Epsom – and the Nats have once again done a deal – he gets two seats
  • But the Greens get 7 seats – returning Jacinda Ardern with a two-seat majority
National and Labour neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

Because everything is so tight and with MMP nothing is certain, we’re staring down one of the most exciting elections yet.

Tova O’Brien’s analysis

Newshub Political Editor Tova O’Brien says she wouldn’t put money on any potential outcome, and there are several.

Obviously, on this poll, Labour and the Greens are heartened – they get across the line and – bonus – don’t have to worry about Peters.

But a week is a long time in politics, let alone eight months, and this poll shows anything could happen.

NZ First support tends to bounce back closer to campaign o’clock – so NZ First shouldn’t be underestimated.

The Greens – they’re falling perilously close to that 5 percent threshold so could be out.

And if neither make it, with the National Party the bigger party, Simon Bridges could make it.

Now that he’s ruled out working with NZ First, watch as the Nats set their sights on the Greens – expect an all-out blue-on-green attack.

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50 COMMENTS

    • I think I won my bet that I made on here two months ago.
      Act still not even on 2% with all the hype on here.
      And all the people on the radio saying they are going to vote for them.
      (At least they get two seats)

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        • I know you are an acolyte Pascal – but I think on here we ought not to follow the lunacy of the left and “eat our own”.

          Dealing with the facts of the matter – DN15 made a prediction – and it came true. And ACT are still a fair way short of addressing all the really important issues de jour:
          – attack on freedom of speech (9/10)
          – the evil of unfettered immigration and the UN Migration Pact (0/10)
          – the undemocratic and nonsensical gun grab from the Masons police (10/10)
          – the disaster of MMP (0/10)
          – the imperative of breaking the system of Marxist indoctrination centres that used to be the NZ schooling system (2/10)

          He’s made a start, but on the “killer” issue – the UN Migration Pact – he’s as censorious as Cindy is.

          So Seymour is far from reproach, and as it’s harder and harder to hold our elected officials to any kinds of standards at all these days – forums like YSB – are important because they allow contributers like DN15 to ask for more from the bloated swamp-dwellers we all fund. I personally want more from even the better ones – and I don’t think any of us should settle for half-pie Seymour. I suspect there is a lot more of what we want lurking inside of Seymour and maybe he just needs to hear enough support to release what we want.

          Respectfully, I’m with DN15. I want Seymour to grow up as a politician – he’s been the leader for six years now and you’d hardly call his first six years earth-shattering. He wasted his first three years making Charter School sand castles – when Labour introduce something radical – they don’t do it in just six sites! They fucking mainstream it! He was utterly childish by not going the whole hog and opening the door to every school – Labour wouldnt have dared to extinguish the programme if there’d been 2000 charter schools.

          And the last three years – he’s been doing a hobby project getting a 3rd tier issue through the House while Rome has been burning. And after 6 years re-building ACT’s support – what has he got to show for it? 2%

          But he’s done enough to get my vote – although that’s not hard given the shitshow of options on offer currently. But I don’t want to be voting for the “least bad” – I want to be inspired and I want to feel like Trump voters do – that they are part of a ‘conservative movement’, that their vote counts and they’re making history.

          Seymour doesn’t make me feel that way – but I think he has potential to be that person. The problem is that potential has a shelf life!

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  1. Buggar the polls..its all down to that one day in September. If it happens to be raining the lazy no good bludging liarbor voters will stay in bed and smoke their meth. Same with the greens, just roll over and light up a joint. Poll smoll.

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  2. Are they serious?!
    Q: Do you think National should work with NZ First?
    Did NewsHub ask this question before or after Simon Bridges ruled out working with Winston and NZ First? That would make a huge difference to the answer.

    National-New Zealand First voters want parties to work together, Newshub-Reid Research poll shows
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/national-new-zealand-first-voters-want-parties-to-work-together-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows.html

    8

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  3. I see Simon has promised to pay the AIDS Foundation $1 million of taxpayer’s money. The AIDS Foundation will not tell homosexuals that having multiple sexual partners is the main cause of the spread of HIV and other STDs. They refuse to do so. He may as well give Peters a million to develop policies to reduce alcoholism and smoking.

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  4. I think the mediocrity of Soimon is going to consign us to another 3 years of the Venezualisation of NZ.

    I’m not quite ready to make a firm prediction yet, but here is my initial tentative guess of the split of seats and how Cindy gets returned:
    Government</u)
    – Labour – 48
    – Greens – 9
    – Maori Party – 4
    Opposition
    – National – 54
    – ACT – 5
    (with around 6% of votes wasted due to NZF et al – hence the bizarre numbers as the wasted votes gets re-apportioned)

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  5. Oh God No.
    Greens and Labour ruling alone is terrifying.
    I am even willing to suffer Shane Jones’ Pork Barrel slush fund if it means occasionally Winnie throws a grenade into the conclusion of some Coalition Working Group.
    I am really hoping Nats and Act can govern alone.
    Hard to believe Labour is doing so well.
    The various polls don’t really line up. Will have to see some trends over more polls, and closer to the election.
    I will still vote according to my principles in any case.
    Oh God no – Labour and Greens. Sweet Baby Jesus, No!

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      • Gazza the Gormless, I am voting Act on principle you knob.
        And said this, and the reasons why, many times here.
        My point is that a Coalition without NZ First would even be MORE terrible than the present.
        “I will still vote according to my principles”, i.e., that does not mean NZ First.

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