Home Uncategorised When Will Antartica Melt?

When Will Antartica Melt?

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People do not really understand just how much ice is in Antarctica. The ice sheet covers 14 million square km (5.4 million square miles). Most of the ice sheet is nearly 2,800 m (9,000 ft) thick. This results in 30 million cubic kilometers (7.2 million cubic miles) of ice. The Antarctic ice sheet covers an area larger than the United States and Mexico combined.

Although there are news reports of the Antarctic ice cap melting, the reality is that while the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been pulling back somewhat, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet has been adding 5 billion tons of ice each year since 1992. The ice sheet is growing, NOT melting. Consequently, there is virtually zero chance that the Antarctic ice sheet will melt any time soon.

The truth is that the Earth is not warming now. Over the past decades, there was a slight warming, but that has now reversed, and the Earth will be cooling down for several decades, perhaps several hundred years. The reason is that CO2 does NOT drive global climate change. The Sun does this. Look at this chart.

This shows the combined effect of three of the four solar output cycles. The fourth one is about 1,500 years, so you cannot see its effect in this chart. As solar output increases, the Earth’s magnetic field captures charged particles from the solar wind, and these shield the Earth from cosmic rays. As solar output decreases, the Earth’s magnetic field contains less charged particles, allowing more cosmic rays through. Recent research has shown that cosmic rays are responsible for 30% of cloud formation, so when solar output is low, the Earth is more cloudy, and this causes the Earth to cool. Predictions now are that we are entering a mini ice-age similar to that of 1300 AD to 1800 AD.

28 COMMENTS

  1. Best we start building more coal power stations. The plebs will uprise if it gets too much colder than it is now.

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    • Thank you for covering this issue Ed. No one else in NZ is as far as I can tell – does that make this a scoop for YSB???

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    • The last ‘little ice age’ had these consequences.
      It lasted about 500 years and had a range of social outcomes.

      Food was hard enough to grow without modern fertilisers, insect containment, and large glass houses. Storage was less able to keep out pests who themselves had less wild food available.

      There was much starvation and the French Nobility carried on as usual tithing the populace who were struggling in good times, let alone with sequential crop failures.
      The resentment piled up and the phrase ‘off with their heads’ was probably a fair response after long periods of malnutrition, starvation, and abuse.

      https://worldhistory.us/european-history/the-little-ice-age-and-other-causes-of-the-french-revolution.php
      ” More and more, historians point to the Little Ice Age as one of the major causes of the French Revolution.”

      or
      https://www.history.com/news/little-ice-age-big-consequences
      “French Revolution
      As the 18th century drew to a close, two decades of poor cereal harvests, drought, cattle disease and skyrocketing bread prices had kindled unrest among peasants and the urban poor in France. ”

      It makes you wonder how hard it struck the Maori who came here in the Medieval Warming Period.
      then it turned cold. It was tough enough with bugger all protein, poor shelter and clothing.
      Imagine a regular winter in the Waikato with a regular 2 to 3 degrees celsius colder than it is now.
      It puts a fresh perspective on those whinging about cold houses in 2019 under their beneficent Labour Lead coalition.

      It is also interesting that the British set up their penal colony in what is now Sydney. One can assume it was a lot cooler then in the 1780s, and far more pleasant than very cold Britain.

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  2. It also ties in with Milankovitch Cycles rather easily. Stereotypically when the Northern Hemisphere is in an interglacial, the ice in Antarctica will grow (there are exceptions of course involving tilt and a less elliptical orbit around the Sun).

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    • It seems a high staff to ‘community’ ratio. The problem seems to be that the clients will not leave in a hurry if there is an emergency, so they are better having been moved prior.

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    • Isn’t moving the disabled more about preparation for an expected tectonic movement off the East Coast and possible tsunami rather than rising sea levels from ‘climate change’.

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      • January 2018 my whole beach section was under water, to mid-thigh, king tides usually lap the front of the section and sometimes come over but nothing like that although it had apparently happened ten years before but I wasn’t there to see it, it was fast, the wind was behind the tide from an odd direction and I was trying to save furniture from washing away and the neighbours kayaks, she was all on.

        I have been told that these events will increase due to climate change, so who knows, but it was amazing. I managed to confine everything behind gates and other than a bit of disarray the only real sign was grass and rushes stopped by the gates when the tide receded.

        If I hadn’t have been there I would have thought that the fairies had been in and been mischievous and as for the stuff out the front that I saved, I would have thought that it had been nicked.

        If I was trying to shift a community of people who could say no, it would have been dangerous indeed.

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  3. I am more concerned about the ice in the Himalayas melting or disappearing.
    It is the source of many of asia’s large rivers.

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  4. Has anybody, any entity, EVER worked out a way to beat mother nature ?

    Mother nature has her own agenda, and has had for eons and eons. When she wants the ground to shake and rattle, then she makes the ground shake and rattle. And nobody has yet been born who can work out how to beat that. When she wants to send a volcano into action – again – nobody has yet been able to work out how to beat her at that one either. Same can be said about Tsunami, Tornado’s and the Northern Lights – all wonderful examples of what activity she can crank up.

    And if any government thinks they have worked out a way to beat mother nature at her own game, then they are deluded, and had better think again !

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  5. Yes, the official line was both the Arctic and Antarctic were shrinking ice volumes. The Antarctic has not been following the script.

    The whole point of a science is its predictive capability. This is why phrenology was dismissed as a science: it was a failure on its predictive utility. Why should the current state of climate science be treated any different to this scrutiny?

    If you state that the Antarctic should shrink but instead it increases, your “science” is fucked. If you say school children in the UK (year 2000) aren’t going to know what snow is soon, and you get years upon years of snow (in winter), your “science” is fucked. And so on and so forth.

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  6. That’s not quite true. Ice is water in a state of expansion; it’s why it floats. If sea ice melts, the actual sea level will decrease – assuming decent quantities as the liquid is in a denser state than the ice.

    Yes, ice on land melting will contribute to sea level rise.

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  7. Yes, the Glaciers, gender, and science: A feminist glaciology framework for global environmental change research paper.

    It’s what inspired Drs James Lindsay and Peter Boghossian to write the The conceptual penis as a social construct paper that passed peer review in the Cogent Social Sciences journal.

    Then they teamed up with Helen Pluckrose to create the grievance study papers.

    Peer reviewed and published:

    Human reactions to rape culture and queer performativity at urban dog parks in Portland

    Who Are They to Judge? Overcoming Anthropometry and a Framework for Fat Bodybuilding

    Going in Through the Back Door: Challenging Straight Male Homohysteria and Transphobia through Receptive Penetrative Sex Toy Use

    An Ethnography of Breastaurant Masculinity: Themes of Objectification, Sexual Conquest, Male Control, and Masculine Toughness in a Sexually Objectifying Restaurant

    Peer reviewed but not published (the hoax was uncovered too early):

    When the Joke Is on You: A Feminist Perspective on How Positionality Influences Satire

    Moon Meetings and the Meaning of Sisterhood: A Poetic Portrayal of Lived Feminist Spirituality

    Our Struggle is My Struggle: Solidarity Feminism as an Intersectional Reply to Neoliberal and Choice Feminism (this was a chapter from Mein Kampf re-written in feminist language)

    Etc.

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    • Bloody hell my head hurts just trying to process the titles let alone what the contents might contain, i guess writing complete bollox is what you do when you are a useless non contributing member of society and intend to remain that way

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      • Unlike the feminist glacial paper, the rest are deliberate hoaxes. All of the papers listed passed peer review. Apparently, peer review is the gold standard of science. Peter Boghossian has helped prove it’s a lousy standard or at least demonstrate that activists can and do run these journals.

        Look up Grievance papers.

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  8. I always ask the Climate Change brigade that if they really think that mankind is responsible for it, then what do they think should happen.
    If it really is a crisis?
    Then what could be done right now?
    Imho the only option is to introduce a world wide one-woman one-baby policy. Tie their tubes as soon as they have one baby.
    That way we will have less people in the world in say 50 years than now.’
    Less cars needed, less wood for heat, less metals needed, less strain on our food and water supplies.
    Its the only way.
    Reducing co2 by 5% is a joke when the world produces a million more mouths every week or whatever.

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      • Can’t we just do it anyway? Sounds less painful than childbirth. I won’t feel a thing.

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        • First question that I got when Trivial Pursuit came out, was about poly-orchid man.

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    • Since the primary purpose of women having sex is to conceive you will be happy for all of the fixed women to no longer participate?

      I do not feel that male motivation regarding sex is the same.

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  9. At every chance I get, I push my population reduction idea.
    It is the only way.
    It would help the world in so many ways.
    If I was really naughty I would say that only certain countries would have to do this, eg not NZ, Germany, Japan.
    But then it would be better to say that only certain races would need to do this eg non Europeans and non Japanese.
    Or maybe just list say 30 countries that are the worst offenders.

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