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The Fall Of Ukraine

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The Beginning of a Long Fall for Ukraine

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

As we head into fall and winter, the situation continues to worsen for Ukraine. The biggest developments have happened outside the locus of the conflict itself, but rather in the geopolitical scene where Ukraine is faced with a disastrous loss of financial support.

The U.S. House of Representatives has just removed its Speaker for the first time in history, primarily over his secret side deal with Biden to get funding to Ukraine. Some of the current options on the table for his replacement would spell disaster for Ukraine as they are all staunchly anti-funding Republicans.

On top of that, there’s been a concerted media campaign to really push the narrative that European weapons are completely running out:

The narrative is now coming fairly out into the open on both sides. In the West, top officials are actively speaking on how Putin plans to “fatigue” the West into giving up on Ukraine, while Russian officials like Medvedev are openly admitting to this fact, and stating that the West will give up on Ukraine soon.

The West has never looked weaker, not only in general, but specifically vis a vis their support for Ukraine. All of their recent attempts at portraying a unified front look increasingly hollow and desperate. The facade is literally falling apart before our very eyes, showcased most poignantly in this Sky News interview with Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, which was taken down soon after because of how inconvenient her “slip ups” were in admitting that Russia is winning the war.

But these latest things are just the outward manifestation of something that had privately started long ago. Ukraine’s support had already been slowly coming to a trickle.

And the fact is, this is not something you can turn around even if you wanted to. The way military support works is your logistics chains from many months ago are critical to the efforts of today. What would be essential to a hypothetical Ukrainian spring 2024 offensive would need to be heavy arms shipping now. The fact that there is nothing new of note being shipped means Ukraine’s near and medium term future look stark.

CNN and others had forecast this gloomy change weeks ago:

Now, in a desperate plea to reengage the public on the putative ‘threat’ that Russia poses in defeating Ukraine, the globalist scriptwriters have rolled out a new narrative: saving Ukraine means saving Taiwan from China. You can see this—as usual—in the orchestrated nature of the sudden, totally aligned messaging, which has clearly been sent down as ‘guidance’ from above.

Lyndsay Graham: “To stop funding Ukraine is a death sentence to Taiwan.”

This represents a fairly prosaic and predictable escalation in language. They have no other way to fearmonger the progressively disinterested populace other than bringing up the specter of some other newer, larger looming conflict as consequence of losing this one.

In reality, it’s probably likelier that Russia losing the war, rather than winning, would cause China to invade Taiwan. The reason being that Russia losing the war would greatly destabilize the world by giving a huge new power boost to the West. And given their precedent to always escalate to bring dominion and hegemony to their adversaries, the West will use the momentum of that victory to up the ante on their pressure against China—that perennial pressure to slowly chip away at and balkanize all competitors.

Russia winning on the other hand would give the West a major reality check which would greatly weaken them and and could lead to their backing off on the Taiwan issue, particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate.

This will lower tensions and lead to China banking on the eventual mutual-political reunion with Taiwan, rather than a forced military take over. You see, China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan—just like Russia didn’t want to invade Ukraine. China made that clear many times that they are completely against it, and are seeking a natural reunification driven by concensus from both sides. However, if the West corners China by continuing to arm Taiwan (as they’ve begun doing now) and turning Taiwan into a similar dangerous thorn in China’s side, then China will have no choice but to “pull the bandaid off” and effect a sharp military take over.

Thus, I believe the calculus is as follows: Russia wins in Ukraine = the West is weakened and pressure on Taiwan defuses, lessening the chances of war and strengthening the chances of China pursuing peaceful reunification.

Russia loses in Ukraine = the West gets arrogant and uses their victory as proof they can weaken China the same way they did to Russia. This will lead China to feel they have no alternative than to act decisively.

So, what’s next?

There is a core group of the most hardened deepstate related European technocrats who are convening emergency meetings in an attempt to bridge some concensus towards military-industrial support. Joseph Borrell held what he called an “historic” meeting in Kiev with EU’s foreign ministers:

And Ukraine’s Kuleba claims arms manufacturers will likewise urgently convene to find ways to continue the charade:

“Representatives of 165 global defense companies will gather in Kyiv one of these days to discuss increasing production” — Foreign Minister Kuleba -> That is the right signal to Russia … if you freeze the conflict it’ll be much worse. According to the minister, it is beneficial for weapons manufacturers to cooperate with Ukraine, as they get the opportunity to test samples and receive feedback in the conditions of a real modern war.

The ‘European Defense Agency’ also signed a framework for the continuation of 155mm production for Ukraine.

The European Defence Agency has so far signed eight framework contracts with European industry for the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition. The signing of the latest five contracts took place at EDA headquarters in Brussels on 5 September, during a visit of the European Union’s Political and Security Committee (PSC) ambassadors.  

High Representative Josep Borrell, who is also Head of the European Defence Agency, said: “We are taking another step forward in our three-track ammunition initiative. Member States can now pass orders within eight framework contracts. Time is of essence. Putin does not show any sign of letting up in his aggression against the Ukrainian people. This is why our military support for Ukraine’s defence must continue. ”

But much of the details are secret and there’s no telling if it will have any real participation from member states, as the framework seems merely a suggestive architecture to try to woo EU states into ordering more ammo.

And now, it’s looking again like Germany has devastatingly chosen to reneg on the Taurus missile—part of the long ongoing game I described last time which saw U.S. reneging on ATACMS, causing Germany to get cold feet as a result.

At the same time, Ukraine is terrified that Russia is increasing its production and defense funding to historic levels:

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️Kiev has no plan in case of a decrease in aid from the United States, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Danilov said.

He also expressed concern that Western countries “have not yet come to an agreement on the future of Ukraine” and “are talking about help, not victory⚡️⚡️⚡️

Ukrainian telegram channel “Resident”: The Biden administration is going to reduce funding for Ukraine three times, our enemy, on the contrary, is setting a record military budget.

“Putin is preparing for eternal war.” Spending on the army in the Russian budget will increase to a record since USSR times, – The Moscow Times.

According to journalists, for the first time the army and factories of the military-industrial complex will receive more than $200 billion.

“Such military expenditures have never occurred in the entire modern history of Russia.”

Is it worth talking about the results on the battlefield next year, when the enemy will build a UAV production plant, produce thousands of new Lancets, and receive new MLRS from the DPRK.

It is not difficult to predict the results of such preparations for Ukraine, especially considering the failures on the international track.

The early results of these increases are already showing on the battlefield. Russia’s drone production is said to be skyrocketing to such levels that each month brings verified new highs of usages that are literally doubling and tripling the previous months.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. https://rumble.com/v3nif7d-warning-something-big-is-happening-in-ukraine-putin-stays-quiet-redacted-wi.html
    WARNING something BIG is happening in Ukraine, Putin stays quiet | Redacted with Clayton Morris

    Enjoyed this video? Join my Locals community for exclusive content at redacted.locals.com!

    Something big is about to happen in Ukraine. Is Putin about to launch a pre-winter offensive now that Ukraine has exhausted all of its resources?

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  2. ” …..particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate. ”

    I’ll believe that when I see it. There will, as usual, be no accountability.

    5

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    • True
      The WEF puppets are stacked up deep at the gates of hell

      remove ardern, hipkins is there; remove hipkins, luxon is there and so on.

      Canada, France ,Victoria AU. This applies.
      The only place that has broken this in the last 6 years is Italy. It stands alone. Precariously.

      Trump is the only one in the USA who can stand up to forces and live- which is why he is under enormous attack; even from obscure little pinko fuckwits like fruity farrar.
      Le Pen gets media shit in France, similar in Netherlands .

      If the MSM was wiped out, the world would be a far better place.
      They are the slime of this planet.

      4

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